Malaysia in Turmoil 2020: Malaysia in Stalemate & Anwar’s Chance is Slim

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As far as I am concerned, the dust yet to settle on the recent Malaysian political drama – nothing have settled yet. On paper, no one has a clear majority to take up the lead and be the next Prime Minister. Image source: Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance

It may come down to the end, to the last minute and after plenty of frog jumping, inducements and promises made before the nation decides that we have no choice but to call for elections.

Related: GE14 2018: The Day Frustrated Malaysians Made History – Part 2

And I do hope that the MPs will nominate and a clear winner will emerge to be the next Prime Minister. This country needs to avoid a very costly general election. More than RM500 million was spent on elections in 2018.

The PKR rebels (let’s call them this than traitors for now) lead by Azmin Ali have joined Bersatu – something that was expected after PKR had sacked them. They had no other place to go. They are expected to nominate Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as the 8th Prime Minister.

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In addition to this, after initially nominating Dr M as the next Prime Minister, Barisan Nasional (Umno, MCA and MIC) and PAS decided to retract their support and called for general elections. But now, they have decided their mind again and now propose to nominate Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as the 8th Prime Minister.

Related: The Malaysian Election 2018 & Opposition Victory Explained

The remaining Pakatan Harapan factions of PKR, DAP and Amanah had remained in their decision to nominate PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as the next Prime Minister. If one followed the decision made before the election in 2018, this was suppose to be the case anyway – that Dr M will take up being the Prime Minister for the first 2 years and then make way to Anwar Ibrahim. This decision was obvious as only Dr M was experienced enough to be the Prime Minister and Anwar was in prison.

So on paper, considering who will vote for who, one can safely say this:-

  • BN, PAS & Bersatu (including the 11 rebels from PKR) in total has 98 seats
  • Pakatan Harapan after Bersatu left has only 92 seats

Although no one has the simple majority of 112 seats, the faction under BN does has an edge over Pakatan. That leaves the kingmakers from East Malaysia of Warisan & Gabungan Parti Sarawak who holds 32 seats in total. There are many conflicting news coming out from the East on who they will support when the final crunch comes.

Related: GE 2023: What PH Need To Do Now For My Votes?

Warisan who were friendly to Pakatan previously has 9 seats but they had informed that they will support Dr M. This may means all 9 votes may go to Muhyiddin Yassin and it is the same with the MPs from GPS who has 18 seats. In the end, Muhyiddin Yassin could get 125 votes and ends up as the next Prime Minister.

This is the case as least on paper – the reality could be different as there are MPs who do want to be associated with UMNO and PAS (the same with others who do not want to be associated with DAP – using race as a factor).

The hope that one can request now is that the MPs voting on the next Prime Minister look beyond the barrier of race and religion and in the best interest of the nation. The corrupted politicians who are facing multiple criminal charges should not be allowed to make deals backdoor to get the charges off them in return to their votes. The country had enough of corruption and waste of taxpayers money.

Until then, the drama continues…

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